Prediction of Postoperative Mortality in Patients Undergoing Non-cardiac Surgery: Development and Validation of the Surgical Mortality Model

Development and Validation of the Surgical Mortality Model for Predicting Postoperative Mortality in Non-cardiac Surgery: A Retrospective Multi-center Cohort Study

This study aims to develop and validate a simple, accurate model to predict mortality after non-cardiac surgery.

This retrospective multi-center cohort study aimed to develop and externally validate a predictive model for postoperative mortality in adult patients undergoing non-cardiac surgery. The development cohort included patients from Asan Medical Center, and validation was performed using data from Seoul National University Hospital and Samsung Medical Center. Mortality was assessed at 30 days, 180 days, 1 year, and overall follow-up. The model was developed using LASSO logistic regression and evaluated for discrimination and calibration across cohorts.

Inclusion Criteria:

• Patients aged 18 years or older who underwent non-cardiac surgery

Exclusion Criteria:

• Patients who underwent obstetric surgeries
• Transplant donors and recipients
• Patients with incomplete data or missing laboratory values