Predictive Model for Postoperative Mortality

Predictive Model for Postoperative Mortality in Adult Emergency Surgical Patients Under General Anesthesia

Surgery has risk of morbidity and mortality. Risk factors include: patient factors; surgical factors; and anesthetic factors. The risk is much higher in emergency cases. The study of relevant risk factors can lead to improvement in patient management and reduction in mortality.

Objective: To identify risk factors for postoperative mortality within 3 days in adult patients undergoing emergency surgery and construct a predictive model.

Methods: This will be a retrospective, exploratory and analytical study. All medical records of adult patients undergoing emergency surgery between January 2013 to December 2014 will be used to analyze for relevant risk factors using binary logistic regression analysis. A predictive model to predict postoperative morbidity within 3 days will be constructed.

Inclusion Criteria:

• Emergency surgery
• Age => 18 years

Exclusion Criteria:

• Caesarean section
• Incomplete medical record