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Singapore's fertility rate is currently below 1.2, raising concerns about population ageing and long-term sustainability. The fertility decline is characterized by falling birth rates among women in their 20s with almost no recuperation among women in their 30s. This project explores a) whether informational imperfections help to account for high intended ages at childbearing in Singapore, b) whether informational interventions significantly affect ideal and expected ages at marriage and childbearing, and expected probability of undergoing social egg freezing, and c) whether informational interventions significantly affect expected and actual educational outcomes and labor market outcomes.
Our hypotheses are:
The project conducts a randomized controlled trial involving 1000 full-time undergraduate students at NUS. The trial has three stages.
In the first stage, participants will be recruited through campus advertisements.
In the second stage, participants who meet the eligibility criteria will complete a 30-40 minute online survey. The survey includes the following:
In the third stage, the students' responses are linked to the Educational Data Lake managed by ALSET, Provost's Office, NUS, which collects data on students' module choices (whether within the same major, in a different major within the same faculty or in a different faculty) and CAP in the following academic semester and at graduation, graduation status, and starting salary and employment status six months after graduation. All participants are informed and these linkages are mentioned in the consent form.
After the data collection is completed, we will analyse the data using a difference-in-differences econometric model. Our model compares three sets of dependent variables at different points in time:
The results are compared by gender, faculty, educational and career expectations, and other background characteristics, including dating history and mental wellbeing.
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| Label | Type | Description | Intervention Names |
|---|---|---|---|
| Control | Placebo Comparator | Receives a fact sheet on diabetes in Singapore |
|
| Fertility-related information | Experimental | Receives accurate information on age-related fertility |
|
| Policy-related information | Experimental | Receives accurate information on local policy initiatives related to age at marriage and childbearing |
|
| Name | Type | Description | Arm Group Labels | Other Names |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Information about age-related fertility | Other | The following information is provided: Age and fertility IVF success rates and side effects |
|
| Measure | Description | Time Frame |
|---|---|---|
| Ideal age at marriage (both self and future spouse), first birth and number of children | During initial survey: Continuous | Within one year and two years of initial survey |
| Expected age at marriage (both self and future spouse), first birth and number of children | During initial survey: Continuous percent chance by the following ages A. 25 B. 30 C. 35 D. 40 | Within one year and two years of initial survey |
| Expected probability of undergoing social egg freezing (only for females respondents) | During initial survey: Continuous percent chance of social egg freezing if available at the following ages: A. 25 B. 30 C. 35 D. 40 | Within one year and two years of initial survey |
| Measure | Description | Time Frame |
|---|---|---|
| Expected levels of education (both self and future spouse) | During initial survey: Continuous percent chance: A. Less than Bachelor's Degree B. Bachelor's Degree or higher C. Master's Degree or higher D. Doctoral Degree or higher | Within one year and two years of initial survey |
| Expected earnings (both self and future spouse) |
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Inclusion Criteria:
Exclusion Criteria:
- Student enrolled in faculty where the Dean has not provided approval for recruitment
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| Name | Affiliation | Role |
|---|---|---|
| Poh Lin Tan, PhD | National University of Singapore | Principal Investigator |
| Facility | Status | City | State | ZIP | Country | Contacts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| National University of Singapore | Singapore | 119077 | Singapore |
The collected data, data catalogue and research materials (i.e. study protocol, informed consent form, survey items) will be made available to researchers at the National University of Singapore (NUS) through the ALSET Data Lake within five years of the conclusion of the research project. Data will remain available for at least 10 years after any publication making use of the data. The ALSET Data Lake is managed by the NUS Instituted for Applied Learning Sciences and Educational Technology and operated by NUS IT. Questions about accessing the data from parties outside NUS can be sent to the PI or alsdl@nus.edu.sg.
The research data will be made available through the ALSET Data Lake within five years of the conclusion of the research project. Data will remain available for at least 10 years after any publication that makes use of the data.
Approval from ALSET, Provost's Office, NUS-IRB and in compliance with Singapore's Personal Data Protection Act
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| ID | Term |
|---|---|
| D043762 | Reproductive Behavior |
| D001008 | Anxiety Disorders |
| ID | Term |
|---|---|
| D001519 | Behavior |
| D001523 | Mental Disorders |
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| Information about policy initiatives | Other | The following information is provided: Assisted reproductive technology treatment subsidies Other fertility-related policies |
|
| Information about diabetes | Other | The following information is provided: Diabetes risk factors and treatment Diabetes-related policies |
|
During initial survey: Continuous at the following ages: A. 25 B. 30 C. 35 D. 40 |
| Within one year and two years of initial survey |
| Expected full-time working status | During initial survey: Continuous percent chance by the following ages A. 25 B. 30 C. 35 D. 40 | Within one year and two years of initial survey |
| Expected occupation (self) at age 35 | During initial survey: Continuous percent chance: A. Full-time homemaker B. Manager or administrator in a private company C. Manager or administrator in the government/education sector D. Professional without doctoral degree (e.g. engineer, architect, accountant, social worker, teacher) E. Professional with doctoral degree or equivalent (lawyer, physician, scientist, college professor) F. Sales (e.g. insurance agent, real estate) G. Other (e.g. small business owner, etc.) | Within one year and two years of initial survey |
| Expected contribution to housework and childcare if married with young children | During initial survey: Continuous percentage | Within one year and two years of initial survey |
| Usefulness and anxiety over information presented | During initial survey: Strongly disagree, Disagree, Neither agree nor disagree, Agree, Strongly agree | Within one year and two years of initial survey |
| Cumulative Point Average (CAP) | Measured in the following academic semester and at graduation | Within two years and six years of initial survey |
| Module choices | Whether within the same major, in a different major within the same faculty or in a different faculty, in the following academic semester and at graduation | Within two years and six years of initial survey |
| Graduation and honours | Whether graduated and class of honours | Within six years of initial survey |
| Employment status six months after graduation | Whether employed, full-time status | Within six years of initial survey |
| Starting salary | Continuous | Within six years of initial survey |