Development of a Predictive Index for Probable Depression Among Secondary School Students

A Longitudinal Study for Identifying Predictors of Incidence/Remission of Probable Depression and Developing a Predictive Index for Probable Depression Among Secondary School Students

The present study aims to develop a new predictive index to predict future depression of adolescents by using factors including individual, interpersonal and environmental. The index can be used to predict likelihood of students who are non-probable depression cases convert into probable depression cases. In addition, the investigators also test the factors of depression remission. It can hence be used in school setting to identify high-risk students, and provide them with secondary interventions that are designed by considering modifiable significant variables identified in this unique, large-scale, longitudinal study.

A 12-month longitudinal study will be conducted in secondary school settings.

The investigators will investigate incidence of probable depression (i.e., from non-depression, CESD<16, at baseline to probable depression, CESD≥16, at month 12) and remission of probable depression.

The investigators will investigate factors that can prospectively predict new cases/remission of probable depression, including both well-documented risk/protective factors and some under-examined but potentially important local factors (e.g. school/academic stress, psychological resilience). The relative importance of the risk/protective factors at different socio-ecological levels will be compared and their combined effect will be identified.

Based on the selected factors, the investigators will derive a new prediction index called the Adolescent Depression Prediction Index (ADPI) in a model building sample and test its performance in predicting incidence of depression in a validation sample among secondary school students in Hong Kong.

Inclusion Criteria:

• Secondary 1 (seventh year of formal education) to Secondary 4 Chinese students, who are studying local mainstream schools in Hong Kong.
• Able to read Chinese and speak either Cantonese or Mandarin.

Exclusion Criteria:

• Eligible students whose parents refuse to give consent to take part in the study.