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Investigators are building an empirical evidence base for real world data through large-scale emulation of randomized controlled trials. The investigators' goal is to understand for what types of clinical questions real world data analyses can be conducted with confidence and how to implement such studies.
This is a non-randomized, non-interventional study that is part of the Randomized Controlled Trials Duplicated Using Prospective Longitudinal Insurance Claims: Applying Techniques of Epidemiology (RCT-DUPLICATE) initiative (www.rctduplicate.org) of the Brigham and Women's Hospital, Harvard Medical School. It is intended to assess the comparative effectiveness of semaglutide vs dulaglutide on cardiovascular outcomes in individuals typically treated in clinical practice who are at low, moderate, and high cardiovascular risk with type 2 diabetes (T2DM) and overweight.
Although many features of the target trial cannot be directly replicated in healthcare claims, key design features, including outcomes, exposures, and inclusion/exclusion criteria, were selected to proxy those features from the target trial. Randomization cannot be achieved in healthcare claims data but was proxied through a statistical balancing of measured covariates according to standard practice.
The database study will be a new-user active-comparative study, conducted using 3 national United States claims databases, where the effect of semaglutide vs dulaglutide on the composite end point of all-cause mortality, myocardial infarction, or stroke will be assessed. Clinical guidelines during the study period recommended both injectable semaglutide and dulaglutide for the same indications of glucose lowering and cardiovascular risk reduction.
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| Label | Type | Description | Intervention Names |
|---|---|---|---|
| Injectable semaglutide | Exposure group |
| |
| Dulaglutide | Reference group |
|
| Name | Type | Description | Arm Group Labels | Other Names |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Semaglutide | Drug | Initiation of injectable semaglutide described in electronic health records is used as the exposure. |
|
| Measure | Description | Time Frame |
|---|---|---|
| Composite of all-cause mortality, myocardial infarction, or stroke. | To evaluate the comparative effect of injectable semaglutide vs dulaglutide on the composite of all-cause mortality, myocardial infarction, or stroke in patients typically treated in clinical practice who are at low, moderate, and high cardiovascular risk with type 2 diabetes and overweight. | 1 day after cohort entry until outcome, disenrollment, end of study period, death, 365 days after cohort entry, discontinuation (45 days grace and risk window), switch between study arms, nursing home admission, or start of any other GLP-1-RA |
| Measure | Description | Time Frame |
|---|---|---|
| Individual components of the primary endpoint, i.e., all-cause mortality, myocardial infarction, or stroke | To evaluate the comparative effect of injectable semaglutide vs dulaglutide on the individual components of the primary endpoint, i.e., all-cause mortality, myocardial infarction, or stroke in patients typically treated in clinical practice who are at low, moderate, and high cardiovascular risk with type 2 diabetes and overweight. |
| Measure | Description | Time Frame |
|---|---|---|
| Urinary tract infections | To evaluate the comparative effect of injectable semaglutide vs dulaglutide on the safety outcome of urinary tract infections in patients typically treated in clinical practice who are at low, moderate, and high cardiovascular risk with type 2 diabetes and overweight. | 1 day after cohort entry until outcome, disenrollment, end of study period, death, 365 days after cohort entry, discontinuation (45 days grace and risk window), switch between study arms, nursing home admission, or start of any other GLP-1-RA |
Study Period:
Optum: Eligible cohort entry period between December 5, 2017 to November 30, 2025.
MarketScan: Eligible cohort entry period between December 5, 2017 to September 30, 2023.
Medicare: Eligible cohort entry period between December 5, 2017 to September 30, 2020.
Inclusion Criteria:
Exclusion Criteria:
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Individuals typically treated in clinical practice who are at low, moderate, and high cardiovascular risk with T2DM and overweight.
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| Name | Affiliation | Role |
|---|---|---|
| Shirley Wang, PhD, ScM | Brigham and Women's Hospital | Principal Investigator |
| Nils Krüger, MD | Brigham and Women's Hospital | Principal Investigator |
| Facility | Status | City | State | ZIP | Country | Contacts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brigham and Women's Hospital | Boston | Massachusetts | 02120 | United States |
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| Type | Includes Protocol | Includes SAP | Includes ICF | Document Label | Document Date | Document Uploaded Date | Document File Name |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prot | Yes | No | No | Study Protocol | May 20, 2026 | Jun 4, 2026 | Prot_000.pdf |
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| ID | Term |
|---|---|
| D003924 | Diabetes Mellitus, Type 2 |
| D009765 | Obesity |
| D050177 | Overweight |
| ID | Term |
|---|---|
| D003920 | Diabetes Mellitus |
| D044882 | Glucose Metabolism Disorders |
| D008659 | Metabolic Diseases |
| D009750 | Nutritional and Metabolic Diseases |
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| ID | Term |
|---|---|
| C000591245 | semaglutide |
| C555680 | dulaglutide |
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| Dulaglutide | Drug | Initiation of dulaglutide described in electronic health records is used as the reference. |
|
| 1 day after cohort entry until outcome, disenrollment, end of study period, death, 365 days after cohort entry, discontinuation (45 days grace and risk window), switch between study arms, nursing home admission, or start of any other GLP-1-RA |
| Composite of myocardial infarction, stroke, hospitalization for unstable angina, coronary revascularization, or hospitalization for heart failure | To evaluate the comparative effect of injectable semaglutide vs dulaglutide on the composite of myocardial infarction, stroke, hospitalization for unstable angina, coronary revascularization, or hospitalization for heart failure in patients typically treated in clinical practice who are at low, moderate, and high cardiovascular risk with type 2 diabetes and overweight. | 1 day after cohort entry until outcome, disenrollment, end of study period, death, 365 days after cohort entry, discontinuation (45 days grace and risk window), switch between study arms, nursing home admission, or start of any other GLP-1-RA |
| Hospitalization for heart failure | To evaluate the comparative effect of injectable semaglutide vs dulaglutide on the occurrence of heart failure hospitalizations in patients typically treated in clinical practice who are at low, moderate, and high cardiovascular risk with type 2 diabetes and overweight. | 1 day after cohort entry until outcome, disenrollment, end of study period, death, 365 days after cohort entry, discontinuation (45 days grace and risk window), switch between study arms, nursing home admission, or start of any other GLP-1-RA |
| Hospitalization for unstable angina | To evaluate the comparative effect of injectable semaglutide vs dulaglutide on hospitalizations for unstable angina in patients typically treated in clinical practice who are at low, moderate, and high cardiovascular risk with type 2 diabetes and overweight. | 1 day after cohort entry until outcome, disenrollment, end of study period, death, 365 days after cohort entry, discontinuation (45 days grace and risk window), switch between study arms, nursing home admission, or start of any other GLP-1-RA |
| Coronary revascularization | To evaluate the comparative effect of injectable semaglutide vs dulaglutide on the occurrence of coronary revascularization in patients typically treated in clinical practice who are at low, moderate, and high cardiovascular risk with type 2 diabetes and overweight. | 1 day after cohort entry until outcome, disenrollment, end of study period, death, 365 days after cohort entry, discontinuation (45 days grace and risk window), switch between study arms, nursing home admission, or start of any other GLP-1-RA |
| Serious infections | To evaluate the comparative effect of injectable semaglutide vs dulaglutide on the safety outcome of serious infections in patients typically treated in clinical practice who are at low, moderate, and high cardiovascular risk with type 2 diabetes and overweight. | 1 day after cohort entry until outcome, disenrollment, end of study period, death, 365 days after cohort entry, discontinuation (45 days grace and risk window), switch between study arms, nursing home admission, or start of any other GLP-1-RA |
| Gastrointestinal adverse events | To evaluate the comparative effect of injectable semaglutide vs dulaglutide on the safety outcome of gastrointestinal adverse events in patients typically treated in clinical practice who are at low, moderate, and high cardiovascular risk with type 2 diabetes and overweight. | 1 day after cohort entry until outcome, disenrollment, end of study period, death, 365 days after cohort entry, discontinuation (45 days grace and risk window), switch between study arms, nursing home admission, or start of any other GLP-1-RA |
| Hernia | To evaluate the effect of injectable semaglutide vs dulaglutide on the negative control outcome of hernia in patients typically treated in clinical practice who are at low, moderate, and high cardiovascular risk with type 2 diabetes and overweight. | 1 day after cohort entry until outcome, disenrollment, end of study period, death, 365 days after cohort entry, discontinuation (45 days grace and risk window), switch between study arms, nursing home admission, or start of any other GLP-1-RA |
| Lumbar radiculopathy | To evaluate the effect of injectable semaglutide vs dulaglutide on the negative control outcome of lumbar radiculopathy in patients typically treated in clinical practice who are at low, moderate, and high cardiovascular risk with type 2 diabetes and overweight. | 1 day after cohort entry until outcome, disenrollment, end of study period, death, 365 days after cohort entry, discontinuation (45 days grace and risk window), switch between study arms, nursing home admission, or start of any other GLP-1-RA |
| D004700 | Endocrine System Diseases |
| D044343 | Overnutrition |
| D009748 | Nutrition Disorders |
| D001835 | Body Weight |
| D012816 | Signs and Symptoms |
| D013568 | Pathological Conditions, Signs and Symptoms |