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This retrospective observational cohort study uses de-identified electronic health record data from the TriNetX Global Collaborative Network to evaluate whether postherpetic neuralgia after herpes zoster is associated with an increased risk of incident dementia. Adults aged 40 to 120 years with incident herpes zoster between 1 October 2015 and 31 December 2024 are identified using diagnostic codes. Postherpetic neuralgia is defined by International Classification of Diseases, 10th Revision, Clinical Modification (ICD-10-CM) codes B02.22 or B02.29 recorded between 90 and 365 days after the index herpes zoster date, and comparators have no such codes within 365 days after index. The primary analysis uses 1:1 propensity score matching and a 365-day landmark design, including only individuals alive and free of dementia at the landmark. Time-to-event analyses estimate hazard ratios for incident dementia and related outcomes.
Data source and study design This is a retrospective cohort study using de-identified electronic health record data accessed through the TriNetX platform. The primary analysis is conducted in the TriNetX Global Collaborative Network. Replication is performed in the TriNetX Asia Pacific (APAC) network as a geographic validation.
Population and index date Eligible individuals are aged 40 to 120 years and have an incident herpes zoster diagnosis (ICD-10-CM B02) recorded between 1 October 2015 and 31 December 2024, with a 3-year washout period free of herpes zoster before the index date. Baseline covariates are assessed up to 1 day before the index date.
Exposure definition Postherpetic neuralgia is defined by ICD-10-CM codes B02.22 or B02.29 recorded between 90 and 365 days after the index date. The comparator cohort includes individuals with incident herpes zoster and no record of B02.22 or B02.29 within 365 days after the index date. A prespecified stricter exposure definition requires at least two postherpetic neuralgia codes separated by at least 30 days.
Landmark design and follow-up The primary analysis uses a 365-day landmark after the index date. Only individuals alive and free of the specified outcome at the landmark enter the risk set. Follow-up starts at the landmark and continues until the first record of the outcome, death, loss to follow-up, or 31 December 2024.
Matching and analysis Cohorts are matched 1:1 using nearest neighbour propensity score matching with a caliper of 0.1. Balance is assessed using standardised mean differences. Time-to-event analyses use Kaplan-Meier methods and Cox proportional hazards models, reporting hazard ratios with 95% confidence intervals.
Outcomes The primary outcome is incident all-cause dementia defined by ICD-10-CM codes F01, F02, F03, or G30. Prespecified secondary outcomes include Alzheimer disease, vascular dementia, other or unspecified dementia, all-cause mortality, ischaemic stroke, and hip fracture. The Benjamini-Hochberg false discovery rate is applied to the six secondary outcomes only. A negative control outcome of acute appendicitis (ICD-10-CM K35) is included to assess residual bias.
Sensitivity and validation analyses Prespecified analyses include an alternative 730-day landmark, the stricter postherpetic neuralgia definition, additional adjustment for recorded zoster vaccination as a baseline covariate, and replication in the TriNetX APAC network using prespecified matching settings.
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| Label | Type | Description | Intervention Names |
|---|---|---|---|
| Postherpetic neuralgia (PHN) | Adults aged 40 to 120 years with incident herpes zoster between 1 October 2015 and 31 December 2024 who had a recorded postherpetic neuralgia diagnosis (ICD-10-CM B02.22 or B02.29) between 90 and 365 days after the index herpes zoster date. Follow-up begins at a 365-day landmark after index among individuals alive and free of dementia at the landmark. |
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| Non-PHN comparator | Adults aged 40 to 120 years with incident herpes zoster between 1 October 2015 and 31 December 2024 with no recorded postherpetic neuralgia diagnosis (ICD-10-CM B02.22 or B02.29) within 365 days after the index herpes zoster date. Follow-up begins at a 365-day landmark after index among individuals alive and free of dementia at the landmark. |
| Name | Type | Description | Arm Group Labels | Other Names |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Exposure: postherpetic neuralgia | Other | This is an observational study and no treatment is assigned by the investigators. The intervention of interest is exposure status defined by recorded diagnoses of postherpetic neuralgia after herpes zoster, based on ICD-10-CM codes B02.22 or B02.29 within 90 to 365 days after the index herpes zoster date. |
| Measure | Description | Time Frame |
|---|---|---|
| Incident all-cause dementia | Incident all-cause dementia is identified using ICD-10-CM codes F01, F02, F03, or G30. Individuals with any record of dementia before the 365-day landmark are excluded from the risk set. | From the 365-day landmark after the index herpes zoster date to the earliest of the first record of dementia, death, loss to follow-up, or 31 December 2024. |
| Measure | Description | Time Frame |
|---|---|---|
| Alzheimer disease | Incident Alzheimer disease is identified using ICD-10-CM code G30. Individuals with any record of Alzheimer disease before the 365-day landmark are excluded from the risk set. | From the 365-day landmark after the index herpes zoster date to the earliest of the first record of Alzheimer disease, death, loss to follow-up, or 31 December 2024. |
| Measure | Description | Time Frame |
|---|---|---|
| Acute appendicitis (negative control outcome) | Incident acute appendicitis is identified using ICD-10-CM code K35. Individuals with any record of acute appendicitis before the 365-day landmark are excluded from the risk set. | From the 365-day landmark after the index herpes zoster date to the earliest of the first record of acute appendicitis, death, loss to follow-up, or 31 December 2024. |
Inclusion Criteria:
Exclusion Criteria:
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The study population comprises adults aged 40 to 120 years with incident herpes zoster identified in the TriNetX Global Collaborative Network from 1 October 2015 to 31 December 2024. Exposure groups are defined by the presence or absence of recorded postherpetic neuralgia diagnoses within 90 to 365 days after the index herpes zoster date. Follow-up for outcomes starts at a 365-day landmark after index among individuals alive and free of the outcome at the landmark. Replication analyses are performed in the TriNetX Asia Pacific (APAC) network.
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| Name | Affiliation | Role |
|---|---|---|
| En-Bo Wu, MD | China Medical University Hospital | Principal Investigator |
| Facility | Status | City | State | ZIP | Country | Contacts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| China Medical University Hospital | Taichung | Taichung City | 40447 | Taiwan |
| PubMed Identifier | Type | Citation | Retractions |
|---|---|---|---|
| 40915660 | Background | Stein E, Huser M, Amirian ES, Palchuk MB, Brown JS. TriNetX Dataworks-USA: Overview of a Multi-Purpose, De-Identified, Federated Electronic Health Record Real-World Data and Analytics Network and Comparison to the US Census. Pharmacoepidemiol Drug Saf. 2025 Sep;34(9):e70198. doi: 10.1002/pds.70198. | |
| 35170873 | Background |
| Label | URL |
|---|---|
| TriNetX: Real-world data for the life sciences and healthcare | View source |
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Individual participant data (IPD) cannot be shared publicly because the TriNetX data are available only to subscribing organisations under licence agreements and governance controls. Investigators access de-identified records within the platform and are not permitted to download or redistribute line-level data. Researchers with access to TriNetX can reproduce the analysis using the cohort definitions and query parameters reported in the study.
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| ID | Term |
|---|---|
| D006562 | Herpes Zoster |
| D003704 | Dementia |
| D051474 | Neuralgia, Postherpetic |
| D000544 | Alzheimer Disease |
| D015140 | Dementia, Vascular |
| ID | Term |
|---|---|
| D000073618 | Varicella Zoster Virus Infection |
| D006566 | Herpesviridae Infections |
| D004266 | DNA Virus Infections |
| D014777 | Virus Diseases |
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| Vascular dementia | Incident vascular dementia is identified using ICD-10-CM code F01. Individuals with any record of vascular dementia before the 365-day landmark are excluded from the risk set. | From the 365-day landmark after the index herpes zoster date to the earliest of the first record of vascular dementia, death, loss to follow-up, or 31 December 2024. |
| Other or unspecified dementia | Incident other or unspecified dementia is identified using ICD-10-CM codes F02 or F03. Individuals with any record of these diagnoses before the 365-day landmark are excluded from the risk set. | From the 365-day landmark after the index herpes zoster date to the earliest of the first record of other or unspecified dementia, death, loss to follow-up, or 31 December 2024. |
| All-cause mortality | All-cause mortality is identified using the death indicator available within the TriNetX network. | From the 365-day landmark after the index herpes zoster date to the earliest of death, loss to follow-up, or 31 December 2024. |
| Ischaemic stroke | Incident ischaemic stroke is identified using ICD-10-CM code I63. Individuals with any record of ischaemic stroke before the 365-day landmark are excluded from the risk set. | From the 365-day landmark after the index herpes zoster date to the earliest of the first record of ischaemic stroke, death, loss to follow-up, or 31 December 2024. |
| Hip fracture | Incident hip fracture is identified using ICD-10-CM codes S72.0, S72.1, or S72.2. Individuals with any record of hip fracture before the 365-day landmark are excluded from the risk set. | From the 365-day landmark after the index herpes zoster date to the earliest of the first record of hip fracture, death, loss to follow-up, or 31 December 2024. |
| Warren-Gash C, Williamson E, Shiekh SI, Borjas-Howard J, Pearce N, Breuer JM, Smeeth L. No evidence that herpes zoster is associated with increased risk of dementia diagnosis. Ann Clin Transl Neurol. 2022 Mar;9(3):363-374. doi: 10.1002/acn3.51525. Epub 2022 Feb 16. |
| 26218719 | Background | Forbes HJ, Thomas SL, Smeeth L, Clayton T, Farmer R, Bhaskaran K, Langan SM. A systematic review and meta-analysis of risk factors for postherpetic neuralgia. Pain. 2016 Jan;157(1):30-54. doi: 10.1097/j.pain.0000000000000307. |
| D007239 | Infections |
| D001927 | Brain Diseases |
| D002493 | Central Nervous System Diseases |
| D009422 | Nervous System Diseases |
| D019965 | Neurocognitive Disorders |
| D001523 | Mental Disorders |
| D009437 | Neuralgia |
| D010523 | Peripheral Nervous System Diseases |
| D009468 | Neuromuscular Diseases |
| D010146 | Pain |
| D009461 | Neurologic Manifestations |
| D012816 | Signs and Symptoms |
| D013568 | Pathological Conditions, Signs and Symptoms |
| D024801 | Tauopathies |
| D019636 | Neurodegenerative Diseases |
| D002561 | Cerebrovascular Disorders |
| D002537 | Intracranial Arteriosclerosis |
| D020765 | Intracranial Arterial Diseases |
| D056784 | Leukoencephalopathies |
| D001161 | Arteriosclerosis |
| D001157 | Arterial Occlusive Diseases |
| D014652 | Vascular Diseases |
| D002318 | Cardiovascular Diseases |