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This study aims to develop and prospectively validate a machine learning-based prediction model for postoperative delirium in kidney transplant recipients, using perioperative clinical data. Delirium is a common and serious postoperative complication that significantly increases morbidity, mortality, and healthcare costs. By analyzing electronic medical records from kidney transplant patients, including preoperative, intraoperative, and postoperative variables, the study seeks to identify high-risk patients and key predictors. Six machine learning models, including XGBoost, LGBM, GBC, LR, ANN, and SVM, will be constructed and evaluated, with a soft voting ensemble classifier used to optimize prediction performance. The goal is to improve early recognition and clinical management of postoperative delirium in kidney transplant patients.
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| Label | Type | Description | Intervention Names |
|---|---|---|---|
| Delirium Group | Kidney transplant recipients who developed postoperative delirium within 7 days after surgery, identified through EMR text mining and structured data extraction. | ||
| Non-Delirium Group | Kidney transplant recipients who did not develop postoperative delirium within 7 days after surgery. |
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| Measure | Description | Time Frame |
|---|---|---|
| Incidence of Postoperative Delirium Within 7 Days After Kidney Transplantation | Postoperative delirium will be identified within 7 days of surgery through automated extraction and structured analysis of electronic medical record text fields, including progress notes, nursing records, and medication orders for sedatives or anxiolytics. Delirium will be categorized by onset time, severity, treatment, and recovery status. | 7 days after surgery |
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Inclusion Criteria:
Age ≥ 18 years at the time of transplantation.
Discharged alive from the hospital after surgery.
Complete perioperative clinical data available, including preoperative evaluations, intraoperative records, and postoperative documentation
Exclusion Criteria:
Simultaneous or multi-organ transplantation (e.g., kidney-pancreas).
Death within 7 days postoperatively.
Incomplete or missing key electronic medical records preventing outcome assessment.
Patients who withdrew consent for use of clinical data for research purposes (for prospective part).
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Adolescent and adult patients (aged 16 years and older) who underwent kidney transplantation at a single tertiary medical center between January 1, 2016, and May 31, 2025. The study includes retrospective data (2016-2024) for model development and prospective data (2025) for external validation. All included patients were discharged alive and had complete perioperative clinical data available for analysis.
The dataset includes sensitive clinical information from kidney transplant patients. IPD will not be shared due to patient privacy concerns and institutional data use restrictions.
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| ID | Term |
|---|---|
| D000071257 | Emergence Delirium |
| ID | Term |
|---|---|
| D003693 | Delirium |
| D003221 | Confusion |
| D019954 | Neurobehavioral Manifestations |
| D009461 | Neurologic Manifestations |
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| D009422 |
| Nervous System Diseases |
| D011183 | Postoperative Complications |
| D010335 | Pathologic Processes |
| D013568 | Pathological Conditions, Signs and Symptoms |
| D012816 | Signs and Symptoms |
| D019965 | Neurocognitive Disorders |
| D001523 | Mental Disorders |