The recurrence risk of patients with esophageal cancer was stratified by integrating different stages and pathological factors. The risk of recurrence was dynamically estimated for each group of patients, and the optimal follow-up strategy was developed based on the recurrence risk.

Patients with histologically proven, esophageal cancer (EC) patients diagnosed between 2008 and 2018 were recruited. Recursive partition analysis was applied to develop recurrence risk stratification for patients. The follow-up strategies of each stratification were developed based on monthly recurrence probability and validated by bootstrap validation and an external dataset. Markov decision-analytic models were constructed to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of the follow-up strategies.

Inclusion Criteria:

(1) Patients aged between 18 and 80 years old; (2) Pathological diagnosis as esophageal squamous cell carcinoma or adenocarcinoma; (3) Patients underwent esophagectomy and received R0 resection.

Exclusion Criteria:

(1) Patients with secondary primary tumor; (2) Patients who died within 30 days after surgery or died of post-operation complications; (3) Patients missing essential clinical information, such as operation record, pathological diagnosis, and follow-up data; (4) Patients with radiologically or histologically confirmed distant metastasis; (5) Patients previously underwent endoscopic mucosal resection or definitive radiochemotherapy as initial treatment.

Chinese patients with historically proven esophageal squamous cell carcinoma and adenocarcinoma

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