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The aim of this study is to develop and validate an improved, comprehensive risk assessment algorithm integrating blood RNA-based biomarkers, clinical, and patient-centered data and to assess the incremental predictive value (discrimination and reclassification) compared to a traditional risk model (change in the c-statistics for prediction of the primary endpoint).
The ORACLE study is a multicenter, observational, prospective, cross-sectional and longitudinal study integrated by 3 different cohorts for 1) RNA biomarker discovery (60 nested case-control sample), 2) model derivation (516 nested case-control sample) and 3) external validation (new prospective cohort of 558 consecutive patients recruited in 4 hospital centers) according to a TRIPOD Statement type 3 analysis. In total 1134 consecutive patients with a HF hospitalization or urgent HF visit < 30 days before inclusion and followed for 6 months will be studied.
This study include the discovery of novel RNA-based biomarkers using next-generation sequencing technology to define and validate a new biomarker set and clinical and patient-centered risk determinants definition. A new model will be constructed; training and internal validation in the derivation cohort using machine learning methods, and finally an external validation of the new next generation integrative risk assessment model will be performed.
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| Name | Type | Description | Arm Group Labels | Other Names |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comprehensive risk assessment algorithm | Diagnostic Test | Risk assessment algorithm including clinical and patient-centered information and a novel RNA-based biomarkers using next-generation sequencing technology. |
| Measure | Description | Time Frame |
|---|---|---|
| To compare the model performance of the comprehensive risk assessment algorithm with a traditional risk model to predict HF related hospitalizations or all-cause death | To compare in an external validation cohort of patients a recent acute HF event, the performance (discrimination, additive predictive value, and reclassification ability) of a comprehensive risk assessment algorithm with the performance of a traditional risk model to predict the occurrence of the primary composite clinical end-point of HF related hospitalizations (readmissions) or all-cause death at 180 days after hospital discharge or after an urgent HF visit (acute HF event requiring intravenous administration of diuretics without admission). | 6 months |
| Measure | Description | Time Frame |
|---|---|---|
| To compare the model performance of the comprehensive risk assessment algorithm with a traditional risk model to predict the occurrence of HF-related hospitalizations (readmissions) or all-cause death at 30, and 90 days after hospital discharge. | The admission will be considered as HF-related if it suits with one of the following conditions:
|
| Measure | Description | Time Frame |
|---|---|---|
| Explore the performance (sensibility and specificity) of the developed model according gender, LVEF (preserved or reduced left ventricle ejection fraction), comorbidity burden (Charlson Comorbidity Index) and frailty. | 6 months |
Inclusion Criteria:
Exclusion Criteria:
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The external validation cohort will be a multicenter, observational, prospective, cross-sectional and longitudinal cohort recruited for the specific purpose of the ORACLE study. The investigators plan to recruit patients with a recent (<30 days) acute HF event and follow them for 180 days. The study will be conducted in 4 different hospitals (University Hospital Bellvitge, Viladecans General Hospital, Vic General Hospital and Igualada General Hospital) covering a total healthcare area of > 650.000 inhabitants.
| Name | Role | Phone | Extension | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josep Comín Colet, MD, PhD | Contact | +34 932607078 | jcomin@bellvitgehospital.cat | |
| Raúl Ramos Polo, MD | Contact | +34 932607078 | rramosp@bellvitgehospital.cat |
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| Facility | Status | City | State | ZIP | Country | Contacts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| University Hospital Bellvitge | Recruiting | L'Hospitalet de Llobregat | Barcelona | 08907 | Spain |
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| ID | Term |
|---|---|
| D006333 | Heart Failure |
| ID | Term |
|---|---|
| D006331 | Heart Diseases |
| D002318 | Cardiovascular Diseases |
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| 6 months |
| To compare the model performance of the comprehensive risk assessment algorithm with a traditional risk model to predict the occurrence of HF-related hospitalizations (readmissions) at 30, 90, and 180 days after hospital discharge. | 6 months |
| To compare the model performance of the comprehensive risk assessment algorithm with a traditional risk model to predict the occurrence of all-cause death at 30, 90, and 180 days, after hospital discharge. | 6 months |