This project aims: i) to identify Cardiac Allograft Vasculopathy (CAV) trajectories after heat transplantation using latent class mixed modeling, ii) to characterize the global and specific determinants of different trajectories and iii) to provide an easily accessible tool to project individual probability of CAV trajectory belonging.

Background:

Cardiac Allograft Vasculopathy (CAV) is the third cause of late mortality and the leading cause of late allograft dysfunction. The field of heart transplantation currently lacks longitudinal description of CAV profiles. Identifying relevant CAV trajectories, or evolution profiles, and their respective determinants is an unmet clinical need. CAV trajectories requires an additional level of understanding and characterization over the current paradigm. Understanding the mechanisms and clinical factors involved in the development of CAV will be useful to provide a more nuanced picture of disease progression, which may ultimately contribute to risk stratification and ultimately guiding the care of HTx patients.

Main Outcome(s) and Measure(s):

• Identification of CAV trajectories after transplantation using an unsupervised latent class mixed modeling. CAV angiograms were recorded per center protocol for all patients after transplantation. CAV was graded according to the current ISHLT classification as CAV 0 (not significant), 1 (mild), 2 (moderate) and 3 (severe).
• Determination of clinical, functional, structural, immunological factors associated with the trajectories. In the derivation cohort, the associations between CAV trajectories and clinical, histological, functional, and immunological parameters at the time of transplantation, during the first year and at one-year post-transplant were assessed using multinomial logistic regression.

Inclusion Criteria:

• Heart recipient with at least two coronary angiograms after heart transplantation,
• Heart recipient over 18 years of age.

Exclusion Criteria:

• Patient with < 2 coronary angiograms during follow-up

Heart recipients aged over 18 and of all genders recruited between 2004 and 2015 from European and North American centers, who had at least two coronary angiograms during follow-up.