Development and Validation of a Regional Multi-scale System for the Prediction of the Patient Flow in the Emergencies and the Need for Hospitalization

Development and Validation of a Regional Multi-scale System in Ile-de-France for the Prediction of the Patient Flow in the Emergency Department and the Need for Hospitalization

The main objective of this retrospective study is to validate a prediction system of emergencies department (ED) attendance on a wide range of time and the need for hospitalization, at various levels of perimeter (with all emergency departments or one ED in particular), with all patients or with one sub-group of patients (age, gravity, care).

As secondary objectives, the study aims:

• to measure the influence of different factors as environmental or structural and to identify the modifiable factors, then to allow us to test by simulation, impact of various interventions (for example: opening of hospitals and reinforcement of ED teams) on arrival flows or regenerated tension inside ED teams.
• to study the relation between the flows (arrival patients, hospitalized patients) and the time of ED visit or the indicators of tension of ED team.
• Typology of ED in the region of Paris permitting afterward comparison the benchmarking type between similar structures.

This retrospective study will be performed on database: individual data in the region of Paris of summation of ED visits and data on the structures of health cares, as well as environmental data (principal given cares, weather, moves, circulations, pollution, strikes, vacations, etc.)

Inclusion Criteria:

• All subjects have been recorded as patients in emergency departments between 2010 and 2015.

Exclusion Criteria:

• None